Question 1

The below graph plots the daily prices of Gold over time.
a) Examine the plot and describe the issues that may arise using this time series data for forecasting. Offer solutions to these issues.
b) Offer a suitable forecasting method for this data.

Question 2

The below output shows the results of an ARIMA model which was fitted to a time-series data of Japan’s GDP and an excerpt of the data. Based on the below model and information:
a) Explain whether the time series is likely to contain a seasonal pattern, a trend pattern, neither, or both.
b) Explain the predicted GDP value for Q4, 2022.

Question 5

The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AU dollars) have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8.5, 8, 8, 9. Examining the forecasting accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting methods would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.85 and initial state of 8)?