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OMGT2228: OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Assignment, RMIT, Singapore A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank account opened by customers in each year
University The Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT)
Subject OMGT2228: OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Posted on: 13th Jun 2023

OMGT2228: OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Assignment, RMIT, Singapore A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank account opened by customers in each year

Case study: Bank Account Forecast

A well-known commercial bank in Australia is interested in estimating the number of new bank account opened by customers in each year. The number of new accounts opened in this bank has increased slowly over years even during the global financial crisis (2008–2009). Top management strongly believes that they need a long-term strategic plan for the bank which is a 5-year forecast for the number of new accounts opened. To achieve this aim, the bank operations manager examined past account data and also extracted the employment rate over 30 years (1991-2020). The resulting data are shown in below table:

Year No of new account(000) Employment Rate (%) Year No of new account(000) Employment Rate (%)
1991 3.136 90.42 2006 6.007 95.22
1992 3.309 89.27 2007 5.826 95.62
1993 3.803 89.13 2008 8.266 95.77
1994 6.807 90.28 2009 7.128 94.44
1995 2.386 91.53 2010 9.670 94.79
1996 4.643 91.49 2011 11.419 94.92
1997 2.911 91.64 2012 11.335 94.78
1998 2.553 92.32 2013 9.358 94.34
1999 4.422 93.13 2014 10.418 93.92
2000 3.613 93.72 2015 10.459 93.95
2001 3.948 93.26 2016 7.328 94.29
2002 3.347 93.63 2017 9.004 94.41
2003 3.907 94.07 2018 8.559 94.70
2004 4.071 94.60 2019 8.476 94.84
2005 6.666 94.97 2020 8.635 93.39

Using the following forecast methods discuss which method fits best for the bank’s strategic plan. You need to justify the selection of one method over another.

  • Moving average (you need to find the best value for n)
  • Linear trend (trend projection)
  • Linear regression

Can you exclude a portion of the data for the analysis? If yes, why?

The bank operations manager also collected the data on Australia’s GDP Per Capita (Gross Domestic Product) and believes that GDP Per Capita can also affect the number of a bank accounts. Below table shows the data for the same period:

Year GDP Per Capita (000A$) Year GDP Per Capita (000A$)
1991 18.8218 2006 36.04492
1992 18.57012 2007 40.96005
1993 17.63453 2008 49.60166
1994 18.04614 2009 42.77236
1995 20.31963 2010 52.02213
1996 21.86133 2011 62.51783
1997 23.4686 2012 68.01215
1998 21.31896 2013 68.15011
1999 20.53304 2014 62.51079
2000 21.67925 2015 56.75572
2001 19.49086 2016 49.97113
2002 20.08248 2017 54.02797
2003 23.44703 2018 57.35496
2004 30.43068 2019 55.0572
2005 33.99924 2020 51.81215

Between GDP Per Capita and employment rate which one do you think can better estimate the number of new bank accounts?

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